The funeral bell for the thirtieth Dáil began to pall this morning, with a statement from John Gormley saying that his Green Party were eager to publish the four year-plan for economic recovery, pass the upcoming budget and come to agreement with the IMF and the ECB, but that the party wanted a general election to be held in the second half of January. It was the first major event of what was a tumultuous day for Irish politics and society, one which will probably force the night staff working overtime to get tomorrow morning's headlines up to date.
Last night's conference featuring Mr. Cowen and Mr. Lenihan seeking assistance from the IMF and its EU partners sought to restore some confidence in both the Irish economy and the euro, which was met with enthusiasm as markets opened, with shares across Europe up on Friday's trading, while the euro climbed against the dollar and Ireland's borrowing rate decreased. Following the statement, these trends were reversed, the markets closing down, while Ireland's interest rate returned to over eight per cent. Any hopes that pressure on the single currency would ease, and that the spooked global markets would regain faith in the Irish economy, were lost after little more than twelve hours.
As the day continued, while the Greens were committing to remain in government until after the budget was signed into law, the two of the three government-supporting independent TDs stated that they could not guarantee their support even as long as that, while two Fianna Fáil TDs called on Mr. Cowen to resign as Taoiseach and as leader of the party. From the opposition ranks, Labour's Eamon Gilmore and, later, Fine Gael's Enda Kenny issued statements calling for an immediate dissolution of the Dáil and a general election to be held before Christmas.
With the opposition parties, understandably, refusing to support a budget before seeing what the government proposes on December 7, and strong views by Fine Gael's deputy leader and Health spokesman, Dr. James Reilly, and Labour's Justice spokesman and former leader, Pat Rabbitte, on tonight's RTÉ's Six-One News that the government couldn't be trusted to provide a budget they could agree with anyway, the government majority might be wiped out completely, should the two independent TDs on the government benches refuse to support the budget.
This evening, Mr. Cowen gave a press conference on the steps of Government Buildings shortly after 19:00 and, flanked by Fianna Fáil ministers, he promised to go to Áras an Úachtaráin "once the budgetary process was complete" to ask for a dissolution of the Dáil. Given that the budgetary process usually takes several weeks (last year's wasn't finished until March), and that the Christmas recess runs until January 19, it has been estimated that an election wouldn't be held before February, at the earliest.
Mr. Cowen gave a brave performance on the Government Buildings steps, but he surely knows the jig is up. Fianna Fáil ministers are believed to be incensed that the Greens have pulled the carpet from under the government, though the declining majority was probably going to disappear completely by spring anyway. Pulling out of government, now or after the budget, isn't going to do the Greens any favours; they will be severely punished by the electorate, whenever the election is held. What the move has done, though, is add further uncertainty into the mix, with foreign governments and international markets unsure what's about to happen. If today is any example, no-one could predict what the political outlook will be in 24 hours, let alone by budget day.
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