Constituency Profile: Dún Laoghaire (#GE11)

A constituency profile for the upcoming election, looking at Dún Laoghaire.

Dún Laoghaire has always featured a number of prominent politicians, a tradition the constituency has enjoyed since it was created in 1977, with numerous ministers and spokespeople, past and present, representing this constituency over the years. 2011 is no different in that regard, but will see at least one incumbent lose their seat, with a reduction in the number of seats and all five sitting TDs seeking re-election. The next three weeks will see much drama and recriminations in a constituency that has been dubbed the “group of death”.

The five incumbents are hoping to retain the seats they won in 2007: Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews of Fianna Fáil, Eamon Gilmore of Labour, Seán Barrett of Fine Gael and Ciarán Cuffe of the Green Party. Four of the five elected in 2007 had also won seats in 2002, with Barrett the sole change; he regained a seat he had held from 1997 until 2002 when Fine Gael were wiped out in Dublin. He took the seat at the expense of Fiona O’Malley, as the Progressive Democrats suffered their own terminal meltdown. Gilmore, leader of the Labour Party since shortly after the last general election, has been a TD for the constituency since 1987, being a member of the Workers Party and Democratic Left before the latter united with Labour in 1999. Andrews is part of a dynasty in Dún Laoghaire; his father is former Minister for Foreign Affairs David Andrews, who represented the constituency and its predecessor (Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown) from 1965 to 2002.

The background of past elections and longevity of the incumbents is important, not least because it explains why the Fianna Fáil policy of moving incumbents to other areas for this election has not happened here. With the party in trouble nationally, it has become a desire to limit damage, especially to younger TDs and candidates: in four constituencies (Cavan–Monaghan, Cork North West, Dublin North West, and Dublin South-Central), Fianna Fáil is nominating fewer candidates than it has outgoing TDs, effectively conceding a seat in each, knowing that it would be nearly impossible to retain them.

In Dún Laoghaire, the party is looking to return their two TDs, a difficult enough task in a five-seat constituency given the level of danger the party in is, both nationally and especially in Dublin. With only four seats to run for, Ms. Hanafin (new deputy leader of the party and outgoing Minister for Tourism, Culture and Sport, Enterprise, Trade and Innovation) and Mr. Andrews (outgoing Minister of State for Children) facing a backlash from the electorate and a fight with each other for the remaining Fianna Fáil voters.

                                                                                                    

Given that nearby Dublin South’s Fianna Fáil ticket looks weak, the stubbornness of the Ms. Hanafin and Mr. Andrews in refusing to consider moving will almost certainly haunt at least one of them, if not both, as they risk splintering what will be a much reduced party vote on February 25. Ministers are not immune to being deemed surplus to requirements by the electorate. Ms. Hanafin would be considered the favourite were it to become a race between the two Fianna Fáil candidates; her elevation to party deputy leader and her recent attempt to become party leader may help her cause, while the fact that she polled over 3,000 more votes than Mr. Andrews in 2007 means she would probably be in the healthier position.

The party expected to do perform best here is Labour, a reasonable opinion given both the stature and popularity of its incumbent, Eamon Gilmore, and the similarly high profile enjoyed by his running mate, Senator Ivana Bacik. It’s unusual for Labour to be in the position of being able to run two candidates in any constituency, let alone in any with fewer than five seats on offer. The party tried two candidates here in 2007, but while the two candidates were unable to get more than a combined 16% share of the vote, Oisín Quinn’s hopes weren’t helped by the fact that Mr. Gilmore received over three times as many votes as his running mate. Labour would do well to take a leaf out of the Fianna Fáil vote management book, and give half of the constituency to each candidate, allowing them both to maximise their chances. That said, the high profile of both candidates, especially that of Mr. Gilmore, should be enough for Labour to gain a huge share of the overall vote, probably one of the largest shares of the vote Labour can expect to get anywhere in the country, and it would be most disappointing for the party were Ms. Bacik not to win a seat too.

                                                                                                 

Fine Gael enter this particular race free from the threat once posed by the now-defunct Progressive Democrats, and Seán Barrett should have no difficulties in retaining his seat. Indeed, party HQ have been talking up the possibility of nicking a second seat here, with Mary Mitchell O’Connor the chosen running mate for Mr. Barrett. Were Dún Laoghaire still a five-seater, a gain might have been on the cards, but with one less seat to fight for, and an expected surge in support for Labour, the likelihood is that Fine Gael will be unable to get enough support to get close to winning two seats.

                                                                                  

The Green Party’s Ciarán Cuffe is heavily tipped to lose his seat. He received only 7.7% of the vote last time out, and relied heavily on transfers from across the spectrum to scrape home. With the Greens struggling badly across the country, and transfers from anywhere looking a most improbable prospect because of the greens role as junior partner in the last government, former Minister of State Mr. Cuffe would be performing heroics to get even halfway near the number of votes he’d need to retain his seat.

The People Before Profit (and United Left Alliance) candidate, Richard Boyd Barrett, did surprisingly well in 2007 and would have been in a great position to win a seat were there still five seats on offer. In order to finish with a seat in the Dáil, Boyd Barrett would need substantial transfers from other parties, a scenario which is unlikely, given his inability to get transfers from anyone bar Sinn Féin in 2007. His first preference vote will be boosted by the fact that Sinn Féin will not be running in this constituency this year. 

Come polling day then, Labour and Fine Gael will certainly have one each. Fianna Fáil will probably retain one seat, but won’t keep the two they enter the election with. The final seat will be a contest between Ivana Bacik and Richard Boyd Barrett, with Ms. Bacik the clear favourite, with a proper vote management and a high level of transfers from her party leader that should be enough to ease her over the finishing line.

Prediction: Labour 2 (1 gain), Fine Gael 1 (unchanged), Fianna Fáil 1 (1 loss)