The Day After The Night Before

The dust is starting to settle following the general election, and the decision of the people is rather emphatic. Fine Gael will enjoy receiving their largest share of the vote since the days of Garret Fitzgerald’s leadership, and will even exceed the number of seats from that November 1982 vote. Labour’s “Gilmore Gale” has exceeded the “Spring Tide” of 1992, while Sinn Féin has more than doubled its representation in the Dáil. The United Left Alliance has made a major breakthrough, and a host of new independent TDs will take seats in the lower house when the 31st Dáil meets for the first time on March 9.

These gains have to come from somewhere, and these gains were made at the expense of the outgoing governing parties. The Green Party was struggling in every poll taken since the end of 2008, and while the RTÉ/ Millward Lansdowne Brown exit poll offered a glimmer of hope by giving the party 2.7% when polls during the campaign had the former junior coalition partner at between 1 and 2 per cent, the inability to get transfers from anywhere meant that the six incumbent TDs were always going to struggle, and all were left behind as their opponents picked up preferences across the board.

But the real casualty of this election is Fianna Fáil. While angry citizens in Greece and across the Arab world have been out on the streets protesting against their governments lately, the Irish electorate waited patiently in the long grass for the opportunity to give the major government party a major kicking once the opportunity to go to the polls arose. The exit poll confirmed what opinion polls throughout the campaign was expecting, a massive collapse in the Fianna Fáil vote across the country, with barely 15% of the electorate giving their first preferences to Fianna Fáil. As it transpired, this was to be the case, as incumbent TDs and new candidates alike struggled in virtually every constituency, especially when it came to the spreading of transfers from elected and eliminated opponents.

The magnitude of what is easily Fianna Fáil’s worst ever day at the polls cannot be underestimated. When compared to the 2007 result, the party has lost some 471,000 votes, a decline of over 55%. In areas where Fianna Fáil traditionally claimed huge numbers of first preferences, seats were haemorrhaged as the party cut back on the number of its candidates in an attempt to shore up the number of seats. Éamon de Valera’s old base of Clare just about saw a Fianna Fáil candidate returned, Timmy Dooley scrapping in on the final count, without a quota. Galway West, which has always had two, if not three, Fianna Fáil TDs, will be left with one, after an election which saw Michael Crowe get less than 1,900 votes, and sitting TD Frank Fahey lose his seat after receiving less than 6% of the tally. Bertie Ahern’s old patch, Dublin Central, was lost; indeed Dublin will only have one Fianna Fáil TD out of 47, outgoing Finance Minister Brian Lenihan getting the final seat in Dublin West.

The hoped-for bounce of support in Cork following Micheál Martin’s rise to the leadership failed to materialise, as the party was left without seats in two of the county’s constituencies. More worryingly for Mr. Martin, a question in the RTÉ exit poll asked voters if they thought Fianna Fáil would be in a position to lead a government in the next ten years: fewer than two in five thought they would (37%), but more than half (56%) thought they wouldn’t. A week is a long time in politics, but a decade spent languishing on the opposition benches is a disastrous prospect for a party used to being by far the largest political party in this country.

While the future for Fianna Fáil looks incredibly difficult, the situation facing Fine Gael looks challenging, but brighter. They will lead the next government; the only question is who they will ask to help support it. The most likely option is entering a coalition with Labour, affording such a government the largest Dáil majority in the history of the state, exceeding the 101 seats held by the Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition following the 1992 election. This would be a more stable arrangement than the other real option, a Fine Gael minority government supported by a number of independents. It is also an option preferred by voters: the RTÉ exit poll found that while 28% wanted a majority Fine Gael government and 18% want a minority government depending on independent votes, nearly half (48%) desired a Fine Gael and Labour coalition. Intriguingly, 6% wanted a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition, something Mr. Kenny would surely refuse to go near, especially since many who voted for his party did so with the aim of getting Fianna Fáil out of office.

The coming days will see various moves at horse trading, deciding how many ministerial portfolios each party will get as delegations draw up a framework for government and form a plan to get Ireland moving towards an economic recovery. The country needs such a process to begin quickly; we can only hope that a government can be quickly formed.

Super Enda

This post is brought to you courtesy of the free (but patchy) WiFi service on Citylink. Thanks Citylink!

I don’t know if you’ve seen the latest technological offering from Fine Gael, but if you haven’t, it’s a basic platform game which sees the Unquestioned Leader (well, unquestioned since he beat that leadership heave against him last summer) jumps across a course littered with leaders from other political parties and, for some reason, killer traffic cones. Enda has to avoid the traffic cones, which can mortally injure or kill him (even with the slightest contact), while fending off his opponents by throwing Fine Gael logo-style throwing stars, while collecting “Vote number 1” tokens  and passing targets representing the party’s five key points put forward in their manifesto for the general election. Yes, I am serious. You can find the game at www.finegael2011.com/game.

The overwhelming opinion on the newsfeeds on Facebook and Twitter is one of incredulity at the decision to festoon the front page of what will be Ireland’s leading political party after the election this Friday with a terribly lame game. The feel of it gives the impression of a poor effort you might have found on the Sega Megadrive nearly twenty years ago, the ending has the same ending as every level on Super Mario Brothers (complete with Enda giving a victory sign; all that’s missing is a GAA goalpost with a moving crossbar) and the only good point in it for many was the joy in being able to kill poor Enda again and again by making him fall onto one of those lethal traffic cones.

And yet, I think it’s a genius ploy. Yes, the gameplay is crap, and the whole concept at “being down with the kids“ and giving us a knock-off video game is completely cringe-worthy. But how many people linked to it on their Facebook pages? By last count, nine of my friends had. How many hits did that little stunt generate on Fine Gael’s website? I would imagine a five-figure number, easily. That’s a heap of free advertising for Fine Gael’s website, aimed squarely at young voters, clicked on by people who may well never ordinarily look at a Fine Gael site or document, and a chance to emphasise the party’s key proposals by getting players to run through the targets representing each of the five points. As a means of subtle propaganda, it’s pretty effective. And all Fine Gael had to do was put up a free video game. Fair dues to them.

The Second Leaders Debate

The second leaders debate of the 2011 campaign saw the two speakers from last Tuesday’s first battle joined by the leaders of Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and the Green Party, as RTÉ’s “The Frontline” hosted a ninety-five minute programme. Pat Kenny became more involved than his TV3 counterpart, Vincent Browne, did last week, asking supplementary questions of the party leaders and drawing them back toward the question at hand when they began the inevitable drifting from the subject or began bickering with an opponent.

The debate saw a few firsts in Irish elections. No Irish television debate had ever included five speakers, nor had any been performed in front of a live studio audience. With the six questions coming from this audience, which was handpicked by Millward Brown Lansdowne on the basis of averaging the national demographic and voter profile in the last general election, the five party leaders were forced to answer questions from a representative group of the Irish electorate.

The opening question was concerned with Ireland’s survival, with an emphasis on emigration. Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny and the Greens’ John Gormley struck a similar tone by empathising with the pain of emigration. Mr. Gormley and Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin linked the end of this scourge with the need to radically reform the political system. Mr. Kenny and Labour’s Eamon Gilmore concurred that the creation of jobs was the answer, while Sinn Féin’s Gerry Adams drew on the rhetoric of supporting citizens by the creation of a new republic.

Mortgage support was the focus of the next question, the poser observing that mortgage-holders were being pressured by the same banks which had received so much support from the taxpayer. Mr. Martin argued that supporting the banking system was crucial to ensure the 1.8 million workers could still be paid and that businesses could get working capital. Mr. Kenny condemned the waste created by incompetence and lack of regulation on Irish banking, sparking a minor clash between himself and Mr. Martin. Mr. Adams promised that his party was dedicated to protecting the citizen, and that “not one more red cent” would be given to any bank before any restructure of the whole system, leading to a clash with Mr. Martin, who reasoned that Sinn Féin’s leader would make a great host of RTÉ’s “Late Late Show” because of the latter party’s promise to not introduce any further spending cuts, while Mr. Adams retorted that Paul Daniels’ magic skills paled in comparison to Fianna Fáil’s promises. Mr. Gilmore reminded the audience that his party was the only one to oppose the bank guarantee scheme in 2008, and that nationalisation of the banks would have made the government stronger in negotiations with bondholders, while Mr. Gormley observed that lax regulation in the banking system was possible because of corporate donations from banks to all parties, bar his own.

A common concern was how the parties intended to get people back to work. Labour and Fianna Fáil repeated the aims they stated on the TV3 debate last week, while Mr. Adams sought to encourage private enterprises to hire one new employee while encouraging TDs and ministers to lead by example by taking large cuts in their own pay. Mr. Gormley vowed to invest heavily in research and development, before expressing disappointment with his former coalition partner’s new stance on genetically-modified food. Mr. Kenny took time to refer to his party’s manifesto, due to be published on Tuesday morning, while Mr. Martin and Mr. Adams continued to focus assaults on each other, before Mr. Gilmore joined the attack on Mr. Martin, referring to the Fianna Fáil leader as “The Great Pretender”.

The big question came next: who will suffer with the cuts that any new government would have to implement. The Greens’ leader regretted the austere budget introduced in December, but promised not to cut social welfare further, while Sinn Féin’s president argued that those who earn most should pay most. Fine Gael and Labour had a major clash over the former’s budget proposals, leading Mr. Martin to quip how these were two parties looking to be in government together, though Mr. Kenny and Mr. Gilmore were able to reach agreement on the need to reform the social welfare system. The final fall-out was between the Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin leaders over the issue of fraud, with Mr. Martin looking to hammer Sinn Féin over its baggage with fraud in Northern Ireland, while Mr. Adams countered with a litany of Fianna Fáil politicians who were far from squeaky-clean in the fraud department.

On the day when it was revealed that 2010 had the highest number of people stuck on trolleys in hospital wards across the country, the ability to pay for healthcare was the basis of the fifth topic of conversation. The Greens and Sinn Féin agreed that a comprehensive reform of the health service, though Mr. Gormley reasoned that such a move would be extremely costly and would take a long time. Fine Gael and Labour were able to draw a broad agreement on looking to create a universal insurance scheme, which Mr. Gormley offered limited support to. Mr. Martin sought to defend the Health Service Executive which he personally created in 2004, arguing that Fine Gael and Labour moves to restructure the health service was something workers in the sector did not want, before pointing out that the Dutch health insurance programme, which Mr. Kenny and Mr. Gilmore sought to introduce, costs the average Dutch family some €5,000 per annum. Mr. Adams concluded this portion by emphasising his party’s belief that healthcare was a matter of entitlement in a republic.

The final question asked why debates, like Monday’s, focused more on political one-upmanship rather than on policy. There was a general consensus that the adversarial nature of politics was a major factor, while the format of debates made it difficult to avoid tit-for-tat scrapping. I found this an interesting observation, giving that it’s the politicians themselves that determine the format of any leaders’ debates.  The leaders used this final question to emphasise the need for change of some sort, in the economy and in the electoral system.

In the end, no-one delivered a knock-out blow to any of his opponents. Performances were solid all round, with everyone playing it safe: better to not lose than to win. A civil affair, everyone kept their conflicts to a minimum, partly to look reasonable, partly because the format did not lend itself to lengthy comments. Two big clashes were evident, with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin going at hammer and tongs, an indicator that the two parties are fighting for a core group of voters who are disaffected with Fianna Fáil. Similarly, with Labour and Fine Gael fighting for the same voters, their leaders clashed on occasion, but overall, the size of the panel made it difficult to engage, because each leader had very limited time to answer any of the questions, which covered a broad range of topics, rather than any one particular subject.

Mr. Kenny has reason to be happiest, a solid performance makes him look stronger, and short answers made it harder for him to make any mistakes. Mr. Adams will be pleased that he got his soundbites in, emphasising the broad differences between his party and the establishment parties. Mr. Martin will feel that he put his message across fairly well, but will be more satisfied that he was able to get his digs in at his rival for Republican votes. Mr. Gormley looked like Mr. Agreeable, trying to get on well with everyone and while he will be pleased that he came across as reasonable and open to negotiating in the national interest, the fact that he was largely ignored by the other leaders shows that the Green Party was very much the poor relation at Monday night’s event. His ability to be so honest was refreshing, but he knows he leads a party which is in for a rough time on Friday and Saturday week.

Of all the leaders, Mr. Gilmore has reason to be least happy with the debate, cutting a frustrated figure as the format of the debate and the large size of the panel made it difficult for him to convince the electorate that his party, rather than Mr. Kenny’s, was the better option as the leading group in the next Dáil. With Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin scrapping amongst themselves for third place, and Fine Gael looking to shore up support and not risking losing any voters, Mr. Gilmore was the leader looking to gain the most in the debate, but was unable to, even though his latest show was much improved on his one-on-one debate with Mr. Martin last week.

The final two debates, in Irish on TG4 this Wednesday and the other, in English, taking place next Tuesday, will be a pair of debates between three leaders, rather than five. Mr. Gilmore will be hoping for a better chance to attack his main opponents.

The first leaders debate

The first leaders debate of the 2011 campaign took place in Dublin against a backdrop of “Debategate”, about who would or wouldn’t show up, with Sinn Féin’s Gerry Adams, probably upset at not even getting an invite to take part, summed up a feeling shared by many that it was really a side issue by referring to the whole episode as "a pain in the ass".

And yet, the first notable thing about TV3’s debate was that, moments after Ursula Halligan referred to it as a battle between the men “who would be Taoiseach”, the man most likely to become the next head of government was about to start an American-style “town hall meeting” in Carrick-on-Shannon instead of sitting at the same table as Eamon Gilmore, Micheál Martin and host Vincent Browne.

The opening statement by the Fianna Fáil leader emphasised that the situation the Irish nation faced was so grave that it could no longer be a case of “politics as usual” and said that harsh measures were needed to tackle the serious economic difficulties facing the next government. His Labour opponent began by claiming that despite a “lousy government”, the best days of the country lay ahead, and that the decision the people will make on February 25 could create a better Ireland, were Labour given a mandate to lead a government. The first impression of the two leaders was how they appeared. Mr. Martin looked pale and tired, almost drained, and had a face that looked apologetic for his party’s role in creating the financial disaster Ireland now finds itself in. In contrast, Mr. Gilmore’s face was serious, but confident, determined to show that his aim to be the next Taoiseach was sincere. Given that television plays a huge role in creating a public persona by how politicians look, Mr. Gilmore looked like a candidate people could follow, and drew first blood.

Naturally, the national finances dominated the first half of the debate, starting with the budget deficit. Mr. Martin emphasised the need to cut the deficit quickly, by a combination of two-thirds spending cuts, one-third tax increases. Mr. Gilmore spoke of the need to create employment and growing the economy first, drawing on the burden on the national budget caused by unemployment. The first clash came immediately, with Mr. Martin accusing the Labour Party of “chopping and changing” its economic policies by delaying the reduction of Ireland’s budget deficit and undermining confidence. Mr. Gilmore countered by stating how Fianna Fáil’s own “chopping and changing” has already undermined confidence in the Irish economy. The two men clashed on which would be the real “high tax” party, with each leader accusing the other of seeking to place a higher tax burden on the public.

The next question focused on the EU/IMF deal, with Mr. Gilmore bluntly stating that it needed to be renegotiated because it was a bad deal for Ireland, for the EU and for the eurozone, and that his party was the only one committed to renegotiating. Mr. Martin observed that it was “dishonest” to say that one country can alter the interest rate charged, and attacking Mr. Gilmore’s statement last week that Ireland’s immediate future would be “either Frankfurt’s way or Labour’s way”.

The next clash was over whether the next government should abandon the €50 billion guarantee on banks debts. Mr. Martin defended the guarantee by pointing out that the most important thing to do was to keep Irish people working and that banks needed to be protected to ensure jobs were also protected. Mr. Gilmore countered that the Fianna Fáil move, in concert with the other parties in the Dáil, left taxpayers in a massive hole, but that bondholders would need to shoulder some of the hit. Mr. Martin played a clever card by replying that a failure to provide a bank guarantee would have had an “immediate and catastrophic” effect on the Irish economy. We don’t know what might have happened had the government not provided a guarantee, but both men agreed that the next government couldn’t walk from the guarantee. Hindsight is 20-20, and the banter between the two leaders did not impress me, because it focused on events which cannot now be changed, rather than providing an answer to what each party proposed to do, were they in the next government.

The second portion of the debate focused on job creation, with Mr. Gilmore promising to create a “jobs fund” providing incentives to employers taking on new staff, looking at ways to reduce rents on businesses and expanding trade in the emerging markets of Brazil, India and China. Mr. Martin promised to restore confidence in the economy by providing investment in training and education, and enticing inward investment from international companies in new industries. As Eddie Hobbes remarked on RTÉ’s Eleventh Hour following the debate, no party can “create” jobs, but merely lay proper foundations to encourage the private sector.

The health service was a source of major clash, with Mr. Martin defending the government’s role in increasing life expectancy, while his opponent criticised the increased number of patients lying on hospital trolleys. Mr. Gilmore countered by saying the health service needed to be overhauled, with a poor quality in relation to the amount of money spent on the health. Mr. Martin, a former Minister for Health, bemoaned the chaos that would be created with another overhaul of the health service, six years after he had disbanded the former regional health boards and created the nation Health Service Executive.

In education, Mr. Gilmore wants to end the two-tier system of secondary education, while Mr. Martin skipped this and decided to focus on third-level education, promising to retain education as a high priority. Neither man addressed the thorny issue of student fees, nor was there a clash on the topic, with both speakers saying education is good and would remain a key part of government policy. There was little surprise with the thoughts of either leader and I’m not sure what Vincent Browne was expecting to hear: a pledge to stop funding education or training programmes, perhaps?

Both Mr. Martin and Mr. Gilmore agreed that politicians pay needed to be reviewed, and that political reform was required, with Labour wanting a strengthened Dáil and an abolishment of the Seanad, while Fianna Fáil wants to introduce the party list system. For me, this was an interesting conversation, and could have taken a larger part of a debate than the few minutes provided, but it’s understandable why it isn’t as pressing a concern as the government finances and the national debt.

The final question asked each leader who they would like to enter coalition with. Mr. Martin stated he was happy to support any government which sought to implement the decisions which would improve the nation. For his part, Mr. Gilmore sought to reiterate his belief that Labour could lead the next government, before dismissing any coalition with Fianna Fáil. There was nothing new here that hadn’t already been said in the last few weeks. The only logical reason I can think of for its inclusion in this debate was for a soundbite to be shown on news bulletins.

In the end, both men did what they needed to do in this first debate. Mr. Martin sought to convince Fianna Fáil supporters that he was the best person to lead the party, and convince voters outside of the party that Fianna Fáil continue to have a role in Irish politics: he steadied the ship. Mr. Gilmore oozed the confidence Labour has going into this election, emphasising the need for change and that Labour were a real option to lead an Irish government. However, Wednesday’s newspapers give Mr. Martin a victory, as his performance will benefit his party more than Mr. Gilmore’s performance will help his. Mr. Gilmore had a bigger task; he had to knock Mr. Martin out of the contest with a killer blow, especially as he was the only opponent in the debate, as well as convince floating voters that Labour were the most credible choice on polling day. He didn’t succeed in either. Meanwhile, Mr. Martin’s task was to convince voters that Fianna Fáil were not spiralling into the abyss, but were willing to act in the national interest, while also defending the harsh measures the outgoing government had taken as a necessary evil, again in the name of the national interest. In the immediate aftermath, Mr. Martin was able to complete his task in a more convincing way than Mr. Gilmore.

For the next debates, both leaders need to focus more on their party’s policies and less on attacking their opponents. The electorate doesn’t need politicians to attack other people’s manifestos; we’re clued-in enough to do this ourselves. What Mr. Martin needs to do is explain why Fianna Fáil deserve another term in government, rather than express support for any other party who implements policies his party happens to agree with: Fianna Fáil is not a party which ever runs in the hope of being the leading opposition party, nor has it ever run with the aim of being a junior party in a coalition. For Mr. Gilmore, his performance will galvanise Labour supporters views that they have a great leader, but in order to become the leading party in the 31^st Dáil, he needs to get support from soft Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters: he has to convince them that he is the real deal, and his party the best choice to lead the country.

Constituency Profile: Dún Laoghaire (#GE11)

A constituency profile for the upcoming election, looking at Dún Laoghaire.

Dún Laoghaire has always featured a number of prominent politicians, a tradition the constituency has enjoyed since it was created in 1977, with numerous ministers and spokespeople, past and present, representing this constituency over the years. 2011 is no different in that regard, but will see at least one incumbent lose their seat, with a reduction in the number of seats and all five sitting TDs seeking re-election. The next three weeks will see much drama and recriminations in a constituency that has been dubbed the “group of death”.

The five incumbents are hoping to retain the seats they won in 2007: Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews of Fianna Fáil, Eamon Gilmore of Labour, Seán Barrett of Fine Gael and Ciarán Cuffe of the Green Party. Four of the five elected in 2007 had also won seats in 2002, with Barrett the sole change; he regained a seat he had held from 1997 until 2002 when Fine Gael were wiped out in Dublin. He took the seat at the expense of Fiona O’Malley, as the Progressive Democrats suffered their own terminal meltdown. Gilmore, leader of the Labour Party since shortly after the last general election, has been a TD for the constituency since 1987, being a member of the Workers Party and Democratic Left before the latter united with Labour in 1999. Andrews is part of a dynasty in Dún Laoghaire; his father is former Minister for Foreign Affairs David Andrews, who represented the constituency and its predecessor (Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown) from 1965 to 2002.

The background of past elections and longevity of the incumbents is important, not least because it explains why the Fianna Fáil policy of moving incumbents to other areas for this election has not happened here. With the party in trouble nationally, it has become a desire to limit damage, especially to younger TDs and candidates: in four constituencies (Cavan–Monaghan, Cork North West, Dublin North West, and Dublin South-Central), Fianna Fáil is nominating fewer candidates than it has outgoing TDs, effectively conceding a seat in each, knowing that it would be nearly impossible to retain them.

In Dún Laoghaire, the party is looking to return their two TDs, a difficult enough task in a five-seat constituency given the level of danger the party in is, both nationally and especially in Dublin. With only four seats to run for, Ms. Hanafin (new deputy leader of the party and outgoing Minister for Tourism, Culture and Sport, Enterprise, Trade and Innovation) and Mr. Andrews (outgoing Minister of State for Children) facing a backlash from the electorate and a fight with each other for the remaining Fianna Fáil voters.

                                                                                                    

Given that nearby Dublin South’s Fianna Fáil ticket looks weak, the stubbornness of the Ms. Hanafin and Mr. Andrews in refusing to consider moving will almost certainly haunt at least one of them, if not both, as they risk splintering what will be a much reduced party vote on February 25. Ministers are not immune to being deemed surplus to requirements by the electorate. Ms. Hanafin would be considered the favourite were it to become a race between the two Fianna Fáil candidates; her elevation to party deputy leader and her recent attempt to become party leader may help her cause, while the fact that she polled over 3,000 more votes than Mr. Andrews in 2007 means she would probably be in the healthier position.

The party expected to do perform best here is Labour, a reasonable opinion given both the stature and popularity of its incumbent, Eamon Gilmore, and the similarly high profile enjoyed by his running mate, Senator Ivana Bacik. It’s unusual for Labour to be in the position of being able to run two candidates in any constituency, let alone in any with fewer than five seats on offer. The party tried two candidates here in 2007, but while the two candidates were unable to get more than a combined 16% share of the vote, Oisín Quinn’s hopes weren’t helped by the fact that Mr. Gilmore received over three times as many votes as his running mate. Labour would do well to take a leaf out of the Fianna Fáil vote management book, and give half of the constituency to each candidate, allowing them both to maximise their chances. That said, the high profile of both candidates, especially that of Mr. Gilmore, should be enough for Labour to gain a huge share of the overall vote, probably one of the largest shares of the vote Labour can expect to get anywhere in the country, and it would be most disappointing for the party were Ms. Bacik not to win a seat too.

                                                                                                 

Fine Gael enter this particular race free from the threat once posed by the now-defunct Progressive Democrats, and Seán Barrett should have no difficulties in retaining his seat. Indeed, party HQ have been talking up the possibility of nicking a second seat here, with Mary Mitchell O’Connor the chosen running mate for Mr. Barrett. Were Dún Laoghaire still a five-seater, a gain might have been on the cards, but with one less seat to fight for, and an expected surge in support for Labour, the likelihood is that Fine Gael will be unable to get enough support to get close to winning two seats.

                                                                                  

The Green Party’s Ciarán Cuffe is heavily tipped to lose his seat. He received only 7.7% of the vote last time out, and relied heavily on transfers from across the spectrum to scrape home. With the Greens struggling badly across the country, and transfers from anywhere looking a most improbable prospect because of the greens role as junior partner in the last government, former Minister of State Mr. Cuffe would be performing heroics to get even halfway near the number of votes he’d need to retain his seat.

The People Before Profit (and United Left Alliance) candidate, Richard Boyd Barrett, did surprisingly well in 2007 and would have been in a great position to win a seat were there still five seats on offer. In order to finish with a seat in the Dáil, Boyd Barrett would need substantial transfers from other parties, a scenario which is unlikely, given his inability to get transfers from anyone bar Sinn Féin in 2007. His first preference vote will be boosted by the fact that Sinn Féin will not be running in this constituency this year. 

Come polling day then, Labour and Fine Gael will certainly have one each. Fianna Fáil will probably retain one seat, but won’t keep the two they enter the election with. The final seat will be a contest between Ivana Bacik and Richard Boyd Barrett, with Ms. Bacik the clear favourite, with a proper vote management and a high level of transfers from her party leader that should be enough to ease her over the finishing line.

Prediction: Labour 2 (1 gain), Fine Gael 1 (unchanged), Fianna Fáil 1 (1 loss)

The joys of polling

With the election campaign finally underway, every party has begun to set out their stalls for the electorate to peruse. Perhaps even more excitingly, though, is the proliferation of polls which will now be released over the course of the next three weeks, with aspiring TDs, party spin doctors and background teams awaiting each new poll to see what effect the policies and desires of the candidates have on the voters.

In the 2002 and 2007 elections, every poll during the campaign was frequently dismissed as unimportant by people from all sides to such an extent that “the only poll that matters is the one on polling day” almost became the default mantra on any occasion a candidate was asked on his party’s latest performance. In this campaign, so far in any event, the parties have kept their opinions on the pollsters findings to themselves.

Certainly noticeable in their silence this time around is Fianna Fáil. In 2002, everyone in the party was eagerly trying to downplay the polls, which were predicting a 29^th Dáil with around eighty Fianna Fáilers returned to Leinster House, perhaps enough to form a majority government. In 2007, polls early in the campaign were predicting up to twenty lost seats, before the final week saw numbers rise again, courtesy of a series of robust performances by then Finance Minister Brian Cowen and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern looking more convincing than his chief rival, Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny, in the leaders’ debate.  That said, Fianna Fáil had averaged around 38% in polls in the six months up to election, a figure not too far from the final result of 42%, especially when the standard 3% margin of error polls always have is counted.

Despite what any party member might publically say, polls are a wonderfully useful way in finding out how the general public are likely to vote on polling day. Of course, the proportional representation system we have for elections depend on more than the first preference vote of the electorate, but the polls give a good indicator of who we can expect to be in government, and in the lower house, when the 31st Dáil meets for the first time on Wednesday, March 9.

Wednesday’s Irish Independent published its latest poll, carried out by Millward Brown Lansdowne, while Red C released its latest findings in a poll commissioned by Paddy Power bookmakers on Wednesday afternoon. While the two surveys have a large difference in the level of support for Fine Gael (Millward Brown Lansdowne has the leading party at 30%, Red C has them at 37%), and a notable gap in support for Labour (24% on the Millward Brown Lansdowne, 19% on the Red C), both are respectable polling companies which are usually quite accurate, and show that support for each party stabilise around the numbers given in the latest polls.

The Ipsos MRBI poll in Thursday's Irish Times broadly follows the lines of Wednesday's polls, even happily putting Fine Gael's rating halfway between the Red C and Millward Brown Lansdowne polls.


If these polls were replicated at the general election, Fine Gael would be the biggest party in the Dáil, but would need support to form a government, with Labour (the second most-supported party) being the obvious choice. Fianna Fáil would be the third party, just ahead of Sinn Féin and heavily dependent on transfers within the party’s support base, because they’re not going to get many transfers from supporters of other parties.

In terms of predictions, Fine Gael can expect to win somewhere between 30 and 35 per cent of the first preference vote, their best performance since Garret FitzGerald led the party into government in November 1982, with Labour hopeful of matching or exceeding the 19.5% the party got in the “Spring Tide” of 1992. Sinn Féin are aiming to double the vote they received in 2007, while independents and the United Left Alliance are looking to make major inroads and claim a significant number of seats in the new Dáil.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that an infuriated public withdrawing their support for a deeply unpopular government spells trouble for Fianna Fáil and the Greens. The election of Micheál Martin has stabilised the rapidly shrinking support for Fianna Fáil, but with poll ratings stuck in the mid-to-high teens for the past five months, the party would find it miraculous to even get to the low-20s on polling day, never mind the 41.5 % and 41.6% the party won in the 2002 and 2007 elections, respectively. Such a result would easily be the worst performance by Ireland’s most dominant political party, since its first election under Éamon de Valera in June 1926.

At least Fianna Fáil can still expect to be in the chamber on March 9. Their former coalition partners, the Green Party, is facing a wipeout on polling day, with all six of their seats at risk of being lost come February 25. The polls from all three agencies give little hope to the party, with support consistently below 5% in every poll taken in the past nine months, and as low as just 1% in the last two Millward Brown Lansdowne polls.

The campaigning is far from over, but given that the polls have been relatively stable over the last six months, and with only slight margins of error, one can observe that, if the people being asked are an accurate reflection of the general population, the electorate has largely made up its mind over who they’re voting for on February 25.