Thursday, 22 August 2013

Nowhere to hide: Forcing the West to see Syria's dead innocents

A friend drew my attention to an opinion piece on The Independent's website, which asked whether it was right to show pictures of children being attacked by chemical weapons, either through footage on television or publish photos in newspapers. Specifically, the focus of the piece was whether such photographs should appear on the front page of newspapers, in light of this morning's Daily Mirror, which shows nine young children, dead and packed in ice, above the headline "NOW THEY'RE GASSING CHILDREN". Separately, today's Irish Daily Star also published a picture of dead children, with eight bodies covered in white shrouds in a makeshift morgue together with the headline "MASSACRE OF THE INNOCENTS", a headline shared by The Irish Examiner. The front of The Irish Independent and The Times show the contrast of an elderly man, dressed in black, cradling a dead infant, wrapped in a white shroud and lying in a sea of small bodies. The Irish Times, though refraining from publishing a photograph of bodies on its' front page, still carries the sobering picture of a child crying in the aftermath of an apparent gas attack in his Damascus neighbourhood.

These photos come in the wake of a series of attacks in eastern Damascus which killed hundreds of people. Opposition groups in Syria have claimed that a number of chemical weapons were used in neighbourhoods across the city, with the number of deaths ranging from 494 to over 1,300. It should be noted that, as of yet, there has been no independent confirmation of any such weapons being used. However, a former commander of the chemical, biological and nuclear counterterrorism unit in Britain's Ministry of Defence, Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, claimed to have viewed dozens of videos posted after the attacked, concluding that "these people didn't die of conventional weapons". Should the use of chemical weapons be confirmed, it would be difficult to place the blame for the deaths of up to 1,300 people at the door of anyone other than the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, especially when considering that the government has implicitly admitted to having a stockpile of chemical weapons in its' possession. If the regime has used chemical weapons, it would contravene the cross the "red line" warning that American President Obama issued to Assad almost exactly one year to the day before images showing people feeling the effect of poisonous gas were released. It would also be the worst nerve gas attack committed by a government since Saddam Hussein's assault on Iraqi Kurds in 1988.

There has been widespread condemnation from the international community in the aftermath of this outrage. The United Nations General-Secretary, Ban Ki-Moon, urged the Syrian government to allow the UN Mission to Syria full access to conduct an investigation. The United States insisted that any found to use such weapons "must be held accountable", a view shared by the Foreign Office in London. Syria's neighbour, Turkey, unequivocally held the regime responsible for the atrocities, referring to "a ravenous group aiming at preserving their power at all costs". France was more hawkish, arguing that "a reaction of force" would be required if it were proven that the Assad regime was behind the atrocity. The Chinese government, while continuing to demand international neutrality in the Syrian civil war, also condemned the use of chemical weapons, though joining Russia in objecting to western demands for a UN investigation. For its' part, the Russian government, standing full square behind the regime, claimed that the attack was, in fact, committed by the opposition.

However, while the general public should learn about this story (and I have used the first half of this post to provide context and some information), what I want to write about isn't the atrocity itself, but to ask two key questions about the reporting of this story and others like it by the print media. In effect, the first echoes that of the Independent opinion piece mentioned at the start of this article: is it right to use a picture of dead children on a front page? No-one can argue that the use of these photos undoubtedly evokes a sense of horror in anyone that sees it; it would speak poorly of anyone who could treat such a photo with the same nonchalance as they would treat today's weather forecast.

Likewise, few would argue against the appropriateness of using these photos to illustrate the severity of the events in Damascus either: a mere newspaper report gives background and covers the facts, but it is the picture that shows the human aspect to the story. After all, saying that people died and showing that people died are very different; it's much easier to focus attention to an event when there is photographic evidence to back you up.

The question is to the appropriateness of using such photographs on the front page. I would argue that it is highly appropriate to do so. If a news story, with or without pictures, is buried deep inside a newspaper, it's very easy to ignore it. The reader might not even see the story if they are just skimming through the paper, and certainly won't see it if all they do is have a quick look at the headlines on the front page, should they have no intention of actually buying the paper. Even if they do see it, they may quickly glance past it. It's understandable. It isn't easy to read a report or look at a corresponding photo which upsets us. It isn't pleasant to start your morning knowing that innocent children were horrifically killed yesterday morning. It isn't comfortable to know that the parties responsible for these killings yesterday are free to continue killing today.

The problem is that when we aren't forced to see reports which might horrify or discomfort us, it's easy to claim genuine or feigned ignorance, and then use that ignorance to hide away from the reality of what's going on. If we aren't forced to confront the horrors of our world, we can pretend that it isn't an issue; certainly not one we need to care about. And if the general public doesn't appear to care, why would their public representatives, the people who can put pressure on offending parties, be any different? Hiding a story like this on page fourteen allows us to delude ourselves into thinking that nothing is wrong and no action needs to be taken, that no-one has committed a wrong.

But if the story and the picture is on the front page, right below the masthead, you can't ignore it: it demands your attention and forces you to face up to the reality that an atrocity was committed this week. You don't even have to buy the paper to find the story; it's right there for all the world to see. There's no hiding, no excuses. Only someone consciously determined to avoid any news could justifiably claim ignorance of this event.

The second question was posed by a comment on the social media page of the friend who drew my attention to the Independent opinion piece in the first place: is it appropriate to display such harrowing photographs on the front page, which can be seen by children here, something to consider given that newspapers are usually on the bottom shelf of newsstands. Like the first question, my answer is in the affirmative. I'm perfectly fine with children seeing images of massacred children on the front pages of newspapers. I consider it to be important for children to learn and understand that horrific crimes are committed in this day and age, that genocides are not confined to history books. 

Children may find it harder to understand the insanity, the bitterness and the international discomfort caused by an internal conflict, but they are not entirely stupid. They have a wonderful sense of justice: they know when it is denied and demand to know why. They ignore the diplomatic excuses about "internal problems" this and "need for reflection and restraint" that. This desire to cut through the talk and actually demand answers for themselves is something to be welcomed, not stymied. I would argue that a refusal to at least introduce the concept that atrocities are committed in the world does little beyond encouraging a rose-tinted view that the world is fine and that anything which challenges this view should be ignored in order to keep up pretenses. 

The question of whether children should see photos like those on today's papers reminds me of my own childhood. I remember watching footage of the ongoing series of wars in the former Yugoslavia and feeling a deep sense of outrage at watching children of my own age being shot at by snipers in Sarajevo and being massacred in Srebrenica. I can recall reading daily reports of yet more children being slaughtered by machetes, like cattle, in Rwanda and the immense frustration I felt towards the grave injustice committed against innocent people and the lacklustre response of the international community. I am also grateful that these events were not hidden from me. Had they so been, it would have been years before I had learned of their very existence, let alone any background which led up to them.

I can understand why people may want to protect children from the disturbing footage which covered yesterday's attacks. It isn't easy for a child to see other children gasping for air in a desperate attempt to stay alive. It's difficult to process the sight of row after row of corpses and that they were there as a direct result of someone's deliberate and methodical actions. It's problematic for a parent to try and explain to their child what is happening in as delicate a way as they can. But if the alternative is a refusal to show that wrongs are committed today, in the child's own lifetime, then I would rather have upset children in the western world than have our collective heads buried in the sand while children in the Middle East are murdered. 

Tuesday, 20 August 2013

ARFLI Top 4 decided, but final rankings still up for grabs

Following last Saturday's round of matches which were played in tough conditions and inclement weather, the final round of fixtures of the Australian Rules Football League of Ireland takes place this Saturday. Though we now know the four teams that will contest the play-off semi-finals at the end of this month, the final ranking of the top four (and therefore which teams will face each other in those play-offs) is still to be determined. First, here's last weekend's results and penultimate league table:

Belfast Redbacks        95-45 Dublin Demons
Galway Magpies         75-62 Leeside Lions
North Leinster Giants  36-44 South Dublin Swans

After Round 9                        P   W   D    L    PF     PA     PD     Pts
Belfast Redbacks ..................9    7    0    2    723    342    381    30
Leeside Lions .......................9    6    0    3    697    381    316    27
South Dublin Swans ..............9    5    0    4    589    489    100    24
Galway Magpies ...................9    5    0    4    580    614    -34     24
North Leinster Giants.............9    3    0    6    358    696   -338    18
Dublin Demons......................9    1    0    8    383    808   -425     12

4 points for a win, 2 for a draw, 1 for a loss, 0 for a forfeit.

Fixtures and scenarios for round 10- Saturday 24 August (all matches scheduled to start at 13:30)
Dublin Demons        v North Leinster Giants
Leeside Lions          v Belfast Redbacks
South Dublin Swans v Galway Magpies

The Dublin Demons and the North Leinster Giants are both eliminated and cannot finish any higher or lower than their current positions in the table, regardless of the result of their match on Saturday.

Belfast secured a top two finish, and a home semi-final, with their win last weekend. They will finish top of the ladder if they beat OR draw away to the Leeside Lions OR if they lose by 32 or fewer points. Should Belfast lose, both they and Leeside would finish on 31 table points. Losing by 32 or fewer points would mean Belfast would finish first on points difference; losing by 33 or more would result in Leeside overtaking them.

Leeside will secure a top two finish, and a home semi-final, if they beat OR draw with Belfast. Even a defeat would not result in failure to claim second place, unless either South Dublin or Galway heavily defeat their opponent and make up a massive deficit in points difference.

South Dublin will finish in third place, and will play away to the second-ranked team in the play-offs, if they beat OR draw with Galway. A defeat would allow Galway to overtake them. They could finish in second place and claim a home semi-final, but must defeat Galway AND hope that Belfast defeat Leeside, AND overcome a points difference deficit of 216 points.

Galway will finish in third place, and will play away to the second-ranked team in the play-offs, if they defeat South Dublin. A defeat or a draw would mean they would finish in fourth place, with a semi-final away to the highest-ranked team in the table. They could finish in second place and claim a home semi-final, but must defeat South Dublin AND hope that Belfast defeat Leeside, AND overcome a points difference deficit of 350 points.

The ARFLI confirmed on Tuesday evening that the semi-finals will take place on Saturday 7 September. Belfast will definitely be at home, the other three qualifiers will find out who and where they will play once the final scores come in.

Play-off semi-final match-ups- Saturday 7 September:
1st at home to 4th
2nd at home to 3rd

This 2013 Grand Final will take place on Saturday 14 September in Islandbridge.

Tuesday, 13 August 2013

Something you won't see in the national press: the race for the Irish Australian Rules football championship



After a dramatic late finish to the European Australian Rules football championship at DCU last Saturday, where Ireland retained the trophy with a last-gasp goal against Great Britain, attention turns back to domestic affairs, with the final two rounds of the national league running over consecutive weekends. The six teams play each other home and away from April to August, with the top four teams qualifying for the play-offs. After eight rounds of matches, two spots are still up for grabs. The Belfast Redbacks and Leeside Lions (based in Cork) have already claimed two of the four spots, and have all but clinched home advantage for the semi-finals, but still have to play each other in the final round of fixtures with the honour of finishing top of the regular table at stake. Third and fourth-placed South Dublin Swans and Galway Magpies could seal the final two play-off positions this weekend, should results go their way, with the sides facing each other in round ten to determine ladder ranking and their opponents in the semi-finals. Fifth-placed North Leinster Giants (based in NUI Maynooth) are not yet out of the running for a play-off spot, though it would require several results in both rounds nine and ten to go their way, as well as a huge swing in points difference, to deny one of the teams above them.


After Round 8                         P   W   D   L   PF   PA   PD   Pts
Belfast Redbacks..................  8   6    0    2    628  297  331   26
Leeside Lions........................  8   6    0    2    635  306  329   26
South Dublin Swans..............  8   4    0    4    545  453   92    20
Galway Magpies...................  8   4    0    4    505  552   -47   20
North Leinster Giants............  8   3    0    5    322  652  -330  17
Dublin Demons.....................  8   1    0    7    338  713  -375  11

4 points for a win, 2 for a draw, 1 for a loss, 0 for a default.

Fixtures and scenarios for round 9: Saturday 17 August (all matches start at 13:30)
Belfast Redbacks       v Dublin Demons
Galway Magpies        v Leeside Lions
North Leinster Giants v South Dublin Swans


Belfast will seal a top two finish, and a home semi-final, if they defeat OR draw with Dublin Demons. A draw would place Belfast on 28 table points, with a minimum of 1 point in their final match giving them at least 29. The maximum that either South Dublin or Galway can get is 28.

Leeside will seal a top two finish, and a home semi-final, if they defeat OR draw with Galway. A draw would place Leeside on 28 table points, with a minimum of 1 point in their final match giving them at least 29. Under this scenario, the maximum points South Dublin could get is 28, the maximum Galway could get would be 26.

South Dublin will qualify for the play-offs if they defeat North Leinster. A win would place South Dublin on 24, with a minimum of 1 point in their final match giving them at least 25. With a defeat in round nine, the maximum number of points North Leinster could have would be 22.

Galway will qualify for the play-offs if they defeat Leeside OR if they draw AND South Dublin defeat North Leinster. A win would place Galway on 24, with a minimum of 1 point in their final match giving them at least 25. A draw would place Galway on 22, with a minimum of 1 point in their final match giving them at least 23. Should North Leinster lose in round nine, the maximum number of points they could have would be 22.

North Leinster will be eliminated if they lose to South Dublin AND Galway defeat or draw with Leeside.


Fixtures- Round 10: Saturday 24 August (all matches start at 13:30)
Dublin Demons        v North Leinster Giants
Leeside Lions          v Belfast Redbacks
South Dublin Swans v Galway Magpies

The semi-finals will see the top-ranked team play at home against the fourth-placed side, with the second-placed team at home against the team in third place. The two semi-final winners will play in the Grand Final in early September.

For anyone not in the loop, the fact I'm writing a blog post on Australian Rules football in Ireland is probably a rather unexpected turn. I've really gotten into the sport in the last few months, joining my local team, the Galway Magpies, in May and playing a few matches for them before breaking my left scaphoid (it's in the wrist, and apparently is the bone that breaks in 60% of wrist fractures, according to the good medical team in University Hospital, Galway) in the away fixture in Belfast last month. I'm out for the rest of the season, but I'm looking forward to getting back into it next spring. In the meantime, and abandoning any attempt at neutrality, best of luck to the Magpies for the remaining home and away fixtures and, hopefully, a successful run in the play-offs. GO 'PIES!
On the upside, it makes for a great conversation starter in pubs.

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

The Fidelma Healy Eames guide to the Internet

Following on from Senator Fidelma Healy Eames' questioning of Minister Pat Rabbitte at a meeting of the Joint Committee on Transport and Communications, over the issue of the challenges facing people through the irresponsible use of social media, notably her "unique" definitions of social media terms, e.g. "'Fraping', where someone is raped on Facebook", I've decided to bring you the "Fidelma Healy Eames Social Media Glossary", in order to assist parents and community groups across the country. Feel free to leave additions in the comments; together, we'll make the Internet a more knowable place for the youngsters!

1337: just after 1:35PM, middle of the lunch break. I had a nice ham salad.

Avatar: a 2009 movie with blue people that was pirated, like, a LOT by people refusing to respect the laws of the country. They'll be downloading cars next.

Blog: portmanteau of 'web log', which dates from the pre-computer days, when people printed the Internet on trees.

Blogroll: toilet roll.

Comment: where people post really upsetting things about the Government in blogs (see above), in the public sections of online newspapers , or in your youngster's status. (We in Fine Gael are more concerned about the Government thing.)


Facejack: It's either something to do with using your face to do that freestyle dance style that was popular in the late 1980s or, more likely, something to do with masturbating the Kony guy in San Diego. But with the face.

Facepalm: what happens when someone headbutts your hand, over the Internet.

Flash: The process whereby your private memory is openly read out on the Internet by youngsters (courtesy Peter O'Brien)

Follower: someone who stalks the youngsters on the Facebook or the Twitter.

Hashtag: a location where drugs can be easily accessed. By the youngsters!

HTML: abbreviation of "hate mail", which harms your children.

IP: abbreviation for "Internet postcode", which is how we'll get those nasty people putting abuse online anonymously.


The Internet Secret Service?
Meme: how the Internet turns people into celebrities for fifteen minutes, because it's all about "me, me"... I think.

Permalink: a link to a page or photo that is always there, even if you delete it, because otherwise it wouldn't be permanent, now would it Minister?

Poke: when people try to touch the youngsters over the Internet.

Social media: an unregulated Internet network where people can just say anything they like, anywhere they like, without Government regulation!

Troll: mean-spirited anonymous meanies who interrupt the youngsters' fun by posting mean things all over the Internet. We don't know if we can track their Internet Postcodes (see above), but we think they may live under bridges. But they're definitely everywhere.

Viral: an email that gives a virus to your computer.

Youtube: Isn't that the place where the youngsters steal RTÉ programmes from, instead of paying for the TV licence?

Saturday, 5 January 2013

The KPMG Girl and the Anonymous Bully



Less than a week into the New Year, and the first big web story from Ireland has done the rounds on Twitter and Facebook. A video of a young blonde teenage girl, with a slurred but assured middle class Dublin accent, appeared on YouTube on Friday, with the subject of the five-minute piece berating a young male, with a working class Dublin accent, in a fast food restaurant. The video has been taken down and re-uploaded on YouTube on a number of occasions, with the Google-owned company declaring that the video contains "content designed to harass, bully or threaten". Having seen the video, I fully agree and so will not provide a link to it. One can be sure that it will reappear somewhere online over the coming days and weeks, a sad reality, given that, regardless of what the girl says in the video, she is an unwilling participant in its' filming. I'm not a fan of censorship, but freedom of speech is not absolute, especially when the primary motive is the ritual humiliation of the video's target.

For the benefit of those who either have not or do not want to see the clip for themselves, I can provide a synopsis. The girl, clearly inebriated and (according to rumour) a fifth-year secondary school student, is in the middle of a rather heated exchange with the young male operating a camera phone. She boasts of her father's high status within the professional services company KPMG, in contrast to the less glamourous lifestyle of the people engaging her from the next table, exclaiming that the budding cameraman is "not fucking a partner (within KPMG), you're a pleb". The decision to emphasise the class divide in such a manner is a poor one.

It's fair to say that the young lady doesn't cover herself in glory. She tells the male in no uncertain terms that he is a loser who will "never get anywhere" in life, after mocking him for his balding ginger hair. Asking "how much money do you make in an hour, like €10?" is considered rude at the best of times, but incredibly snobbish when done in the midst of an extended recession where at least a quarter of the workforce would be delighted to get such a wage. She sounds obnoxious, and the clever strategy for her on the night would have been to quietly ignore the wind-up merchants, finish off her takeaway, and leave. However, hindsight is 20-20 vision, and the fact that she is evidently drunk may partly explain why she chose to speak her mind so freely, while her youth could explain her lack of maturity, which might have pause and consider the risk of mouthing off in an environment where rogue filming is going on. After all, how many stupid things does any person say or do while intoxicated?

Looking outside of the actual content of the video for a moment, it becomes apparent that there is an issue about context surrounding this clip. The fact that the video's subject appears agitated from the outset suggests that she may have been harassed by the phone's operator before filming begins, given that one simply does not walk into a takeaway and start verbally assaulting a person at another table that they don't know, while simultaneously trying to be pleasant to everyone else at that table. Although we aren't provided with the context leading to the video, it would be absurd to assume that the young woman deliberately targeted an individual for abuse in a takeaway without any reason to do so.

More worryingly, when one again looks at the footage, it becomes evident that the young man is not merely interested in recording their conversation. Barely twenty seconds into the video, he films the girl's legs at close range for a number of seconds, a process he repeats several times more over the five-minute period. This creepy aspect of the filming adds a deeper dimension to an event that is already of questionable legality. One or two brief, incidental shots could probably be dismissed as accidents or poor camera control, but the sustained close-ups suggest a deliberate attempt to get as close to an "upskirt" shot as possible, a seedy level of effort by the anonymous moviemaker. Given that she expresses shock at the exchange being recorded at the end of the video, she obviously did not give permission for anyone to record footage of her legs; the fact that she may also be underage (since a fifth-year secondary school student would be 16 or 17) only serves to make this illicit filming all the more sinister. Four minutes in, he jokes that "every time this bitch says KPMG, we have to take a shot"; indeed, he goads her into repeating the name of the company, mocking her by insisting on how great the company is. The man sounds somewhat worse the wear for drink himself, but it is clear that he is still somewhat in command of his faculties, given his ability to both operate a camera phone and  to continue winding up his target.

To make matters worse, he willingly uploaded the video to YouTube, meaning that he had time to consider his actions but chose to ignore his own sexism, the blatant attempts to make the girl angry and, most disturbingly, his obvious filming of her legs and efforts to inch the camera higher, and upload the video anyway. The most noble reason I can think of for wanting to upload such a video is to provide an illustration of an opinion held by the children of the élite of the "lower orders" in Irish society, a view quite possibly engendered by that child's upbringing and their more privileged background. However, the reality is that this video is clearly designed to mock a drunk teenager, who was the target of some form of unwanted attention, and to "take her down a peg" by humiliating her on a global video-sharing website.

It cannot be underestimated how upsetting this must be for this girl. It is difficult to condone her method of engagement with the cameraman, and even more difficult to agree with her opinion, but it would be a heart of stone to not feel even slightly upset for how devastated she must be. Regardless of class or sex, a 16 or 17 year old is trying to find their place in life, desperately wanting to be accepted by their peers and heavily inclined to feel embarrassed by even the slightest mishap that occurs to them. If you're lucky enough to no longer need ID to get into a pub, try to remember something from your teenage days that still makes you cringe, something that you'd laugh off had it happened today but that still causes red cheeks because you were a teen. Now imagine that incident being recorded, without your knowledge, and placed online for worldwide distribution, without your permission. That girl probably spent the majority of Friday bawling her eyes out, and will dread returning to school on Monday, where she will have to face her peers knowing that they probably all saw the clip over the weekend. She was provoked into a reaction, yet will garner the lion's share of the attention for what she says in the video. She has been, and will continue to be, vilified for her reaction instead of being treated for what she actually is, the victim of cruel social and sexual bullying by a faceless coward who hides behind a camera and uses the footage to further torment his target.

Even if she was obnoxious, was this really worth it?

Tuesday, 19 June 2012

More Questions Than Answers: The Greeks Journey So Far


This article was originally posted on www.teaandtoast.ie on Monday, June 18, 2012. Information accurate as of midday Irish time on that date.

People might well have forgotten that there was also a parliamentary election in France on Sunday, given the scarcity of column inches devoted to it in newspapers and websites outside of France. Tomorrow’s European papers may mention the electoral success of the Socialist Party, together with the fall of three big names in French politics, the Socialist Party’s Ségolène Royal, three-time presidential candidate François Bayrou and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen, all of whom failed to win seats in the new parliament.

But the main political news over the weekend was the latest election in Greece, coming six weeks after an inconclusive election which failed to see a government formed. The three parties that had formed a government of national unity late last year (PASOK, New Democracy and LAOS) suffered at the hands of a public that was more than angry with five years of recession, very high unemployment and a series of austerity budgets that had done little to improve the economy. After the May election, the centre-left PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement) party haemorrhaged support, plummeting from the 44% it won in 2009 (which allowed it to win an overall majority in parliament) to just 13%, as voters punished the party for imposing strict austerity policies without any improvement in the national economy.

PASOK was not the only party to endure the wrath of angry voters in May. The centre-right New Democracy had also supported continued austerity measures in order to secure further Greek access to the European Stability Mechanism. However, though it lost nearly half of its voting share, New Democracy managed to gain an extra seventeen seats, as the party took advantage of Greek electoral rules of reinforced proportionality that give fifty extra parliamentary seats to the party that wins the most votes. LAOS (The Popular Orthodox Rally), a right-wing populist group, lost all sixteen of its’ seats in parliament as a result of its support for the unity government, even though the party withdrew it in April, in protest at a further package of austerity measures.

The big winners were the parties that rejected the continuing austerity programme and who wanted either a renegotiation, or a complete scrapping, of the country’s bailout programme from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (the famous ‘Troika’). SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left), a coalition of centre and radical left parties, surged from less than 5% of the vote to securing one-sixth of public support, taking advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with PASOK to quadruple its number of seats in parliament, while the euroskeptic, communist KKE also increased its share of the vote. The Independent Greeks (ANEL), formed after a split in New Democracy, and Democratic Left (DIMAR), formed after a split in PASOK, together won over fifty seats after campaigning on anti-austerity platforms, while the far-right Golden Dawn entered parliament for the first time, as its share of the vote exceeded the mandatory 3% needed to claim seats.

After attempts by the leaders of each of the three largest parties to form a government failed, as well as a final, neutral attempt by the President of Greece, Karalos Papoulias, another election was called for June 17. The pro-bailout New Democracy and PASOK had fallen one seat short of an overall majority, and the anti-bailout SYRIZA refused to join a coalition that would continue with the existing austerity programme.
The second election campaign of 2012 focused on Greece’s relationship with the rest of the European Union and the Troika, and on the country’s continued presence in the euro, as economic reality meant Greece required more bailout money to service its debts and balance the national budget. The leader of New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, portrayed the election as a referendum between staying in the euro or leaving the common currency and returning to the country’s legacy currency, the drachma, an assessment that was supported by the Finance Minister of Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, who told reporters after a European finance ministers meeting in Brussles that “If Greece -- and this is the will of the great majority - - wants to stay in the euro, then they have to accept the conditions [of the bailout programme between Greece and the Troika]. Otherwise it isn’t possible. No responsible candidate can hide that from the electorate.”

SYRIZA, under the leadership of Alexis Tsipras, rejected this analysis, stating that the election was really about choosing which economic policy would help Greece exit the continued situation of recession and high unemployment. The party would keep its pledge to tear up and renegotiate the bailout programme, which had planned for a total of €240 billion to be given to Greece, in return for severe budget spending cutbacks and increased taxes.

Following the close of polls on Sunday evening, the exit polls released immediately afterward did not give much hope for the formation of a stable government from either side of the austerity divide. The exit polls declared the result to be too close to call, with New Democracy and SYRIZA both expected to poll somewhere between 26% and 29%, with PASOK lagging well behind in third place.

The exit polls were proven largely correct, as is their habit, with New Democracy winning a plurality of support on 29.66%, with SYRIZA a close second on 26.89%. As the leading party in parliament, New Democracy will claim the fifty seat bonus given to the largest party, and Mr. Samaras will have the first opportunity to form a government. But both parties can claim success, as they both enjoyed big gains compared to their results in May, while every other party lost voting share, with the exception of DIMAR, which increased its vote marginally, but still dropped seats.

Between them, New Democracy and PASOK, both supportive of the bailout programme, will have enough seats between them to form a coalition in the new parliament. Unfortunately, two major problems stick out. The first, though minor in the context of the severe economic straits Greece finds itself in, is that New Democracy and PASOK are traditional rivals, from opposite sides of the political spectrum, and were the two big parties in Greek politics for four decades, from the restoration of Greek democracy in 1974 until PASOK’s trouncing at the polls last month. On the other hand, both parties are supportive of the bailout programme and have shown willingness to work together to continue the painful process.

The second, more difficult, problem is that PASOK do not want to enter into a coalition without SYRIZA and DIMAR also taking part. A cynical view of this would claim that this is to help restore PASOK’s fortunes at a future election; if the other left-wing parties also took part in a coalition government, they would lose support at the next poll, with PASOK standing to make most of the gains as traditional supporters return to the party. In any event, this expressed wish is fanciful because SYRIZA have frequently stated that would not join or support any government that wanted to continue with the bailout agreement as it currently stood. On Monday, SYRIZA said that it would become the main opposition party, committed to opposing the bailout programme. In effect, the fundamental conflict between the parties on what was the key issue of the election means that someone has to make a complete concession in order for a grand coalition to be formed. Should attempts to form a government once again fail, Greece faces the prospect of yet another general election, possibly as soon as late July.

This nightmare prospect is still in the middle distance as of now. For the moment, the results have partially soothed international markets and politicians. Ahead of the vote, there had been genuine fears for the stability of the euro, as political uncertainty in Greece threatened to derail attempts to restore faith in struggling European economies, as well as relations between Athens and the rest of the bloc. At a rally in central Athens on Sunday night, in what could be described as a victory speech, Mr. Samaras declared that “The Greek people have voted for a European future for Greece. There will be no doubt about the position of Greece in Europe”. Opponents could well dispute this assertion by pointing to the election results, which showed that three-fifths of voters in fact cast ballots for parties which rejected the bailout programme.
Hopes for some market stability proved very short-lived, as on Monday morning the yield on Spanish ten-year government bonds climbed above the 7% mark which economists view as being unsustainable. Greece had been the main difficulty facing the euro over the weekend, but other issues remain in place.

Politically, New Democracy’s narrow win was welcomed by leaders across the world. German Chancellor Angela Merkel telephoned Mr. Samaras to congratulate him, but reaffirmed her repeated statements that Germany expected Greece to “respect its European undertakings” and continue implementing the austerity programme. Other European leaders have also remained firm on Greece’s future, insisting that continued adherence to the bailout programme was mandatory in order for Greece to remain within the eurozone. But the overall picture of Greek politics still as polarised as it was after the May elections. Even if New Democracy and PASOK were to form a coalition on their own, the government would have a very small majority, certainly less than ten and perhaps little more than five, hardly a strong enough government to last very long should continued austerity and increased public anger make backbench government MPs nervous enough to withdraw their support. The people of Greece may have just spoken for the second time in six weeks, but they may have to repeat themselves later in the year.

Friday, 18 May 2012

Euro 2020 and the Celtic cousins

After a (very) long break, I'll try and get the blog moving again, with a look into a news story that has really intrigued me over the last few days: the declaration of interest in hosting UEFA Euro 2020 by the Football Association of Ireland, the Scottish Football Association and the Football Association of Wales. The three associations were at pains to state that the declaration, passed on to UEFA in advance of a deadline on Tuesday, was a preliminary move rather than a concrete plan to launch a bid for the tournament. Turkey and Georgia also submitted declared an interest in hosting the championships in eight years time, though other nations are still able to submit bids, with more than eighteen months to go before European football's governing body picks a host (or hosts). There had been speculation that Scotland and Wales would try to run a bid on their own, but the expansion of the European Championships to twenty-four teams from 2016, with the number of suitable stadiums demanded by UEFA also increasing, the FAI were brought in to strengthen a possible bid.
Getting to see an outfit like this in your own back yard?

A potential stumbling block to the three associations had been the number of hosts involved in a Celtic nations bid. In UEFA's list of regulations for bidding for Euro 2016, two member associations presenting a joint bid is permitted, but the idea of three members proposing a joint bid is treated rather more tepidly:
"UEFA may consider, under exceptional circumstances, joint bids comprised of three (3) member associations if and only if the relevant group of member associations submits to UEFA together with its confirmation of interest a clear and convincing argument regarding the measures to be taken to ensure the smooth and successful organisation of UEFA EURO 2016 in such a manner."
This particular article is presumably to prevent a logistical nightmare regarding transport of teams, officials and (especially) fans moving from between several countries over the course of the tournament, rather than any official disdain for tournaments being held in more than two countries. The issue of having to deal with different tax systems, currencies, police forces and governments probably makes things more difficult for UEFA too, but they have clearly gotten used to the concept as (including the upcoming finals in Poland and the Ukraine) three of the last four competitions have been hosted in different countries with different currencies. What's more, possible stadiums in Ireland, Scotland and Wales are much closer geographically than the two most distant grounds in 2012: the City Stadium in Poznan and the Donbass Arena in Donetsk are 1,793km apart, or a full day's driving up the E40 motorway to you and me. Meanwhile, SFA chief executive Stewart Regan revealed this week that an undertaking by UEFA to properly consider bids with more than three parties was the reason the SFA, the FAW and the FAI were keen to submit a declaration in the first place.

After all, given that the Euro finals will expand to accommodate twenty-four teams from 2016, having three hosts doesn't make it any more difficult to qualify for an expanded tournament than it was to make it to a sixteen team tournament hosted by two nations. There were few complaints about a lack of qualifying spots available when Belgium and the Netherlands hosted in 2000, or when Austria and Switzerland were picked to host Euro 2008, or in the recent campaign to reach Poland and the Ukraine. Indeed, with fifty-three members in UEFA, the percentage of spots left for qualifiers remains the same with three hosts of a twenty-four tournament as it is when two nations hold a sixteen team competition: 87.5% (21 qualifying from 24 finalists, or 14 out of 16). A nation looking to qualify would still have a greater mathematical chance of qualifying for a twenty-four team competition hosted by three teams than they did qualifying for Euro 2012 (21 spots for 50 teams is a 42% chance, 14 spots between 51 is 27.45%. This increased likelihood of qualifying is precisely why UEFA wanted to expand the number of finalists to twenty-four).

Turkey had been strong favourites to win the rights to host the tournament, especially after narrowly losing to France in the race to host Euro 2016 two years ago, while also having failed to win hosting rights for Euro 2008 and Euro 2012. But the fallout of widespread corruption and match-fixing in Turkish soccer has caused major embarrassment to the Turkish FA, with the scandal leading to the 2010-11 league champions, Fenerbache, being withdrawn from this season's Champions League on the direct order of UEFA. The resulting whispers of serious concern among the top brass at Europe's football governing body has opened the door for an opposing bid. In addition, Istanbul is applying to host the summer Olympics in the same year, the fifth time the city has sought to host the event in twenty years. Since the host of the 2020 summer Olympics will be known by September next year, Turkey's bid to host Euro 2020 could be terminated before UEFA gets a say in the matter: despite some tacit support from UEFA President Michel Platini, the President of the International Olympic Committee, Jacques Rogge, stated that no country was allowed to host the Olympics and another major international tournament in the same year. In short, Turkey could have Euro 2020, or Istanbul could have the 32nd summer Games, but they couldn't have both.

The other country to have declared an interest in hosting Euro 2020, Georgia, is likely to lag well behind should it decide to submit a formal bid. The Georgian FA had hoped to enter a joint bid with its neighbour Azerbaijan, but the latter decided not to proceed, as it's capital city, Baku, is also looking to host the 2020 summer Olympics. The main difficulty for the former Soviet republic is, with a population slightly larger than the Republic of Ireland, it could severely struggle to provide the minimum of nine all-seater stadiums expected by UEFA, of which two must be able to hold at least 50,000 spectators, another three capable of holding 40,000, and at least four more able to accommodate 30,000. This is before thinking of the infrastructure needed to provide adequate hotel space for the hundreds of thousands of potential fans travelling to the tournament, on top of the twenty-four teams and their delegations. A second issue is continued tension between the government of Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Following a full-scale war between the two states in 2008, Georgia considers the Russian military presence in the two regions as "an illegal military occupation", a sentiment that would leave people at UEFA headquarters nervous at the thought of giving their prize pony over to a state with a perpetually strained relationship with a major political and (growing) footballing power.

Of the larger European nations, France are already hosting Euro 2016 and Russia will run the 2018 FIFA World Cup, so neither would be allowed to bid for Euro 2020. The English, German and Spanish FAs all ruled themselves out of the running, while Italy continues to struggle both financially and in footballing terms, with their bid for Euro 2016 failing to win a single vote and their stadiums, fine for the World Cup in 1990, gradually requiring more and more renovation.

So, what of a Celtic collaboration? The existing ban on the sale of alcohol in Scottish grounds would not be a problem, given that UEFA expressly forbids it at its events, for security reasons.  The quality and quantity of venues in Ireland, Scotland and Wales is cause for good cheer: Lansdowne Road impressed the governing body after the successful hosting of last year's Europa League final between Porto and Braga and is barely two years old, while Glasgow's Hampden Park hosted the 2002 Champions League final and the decider of the 2006-07 UEFA Cup. For its part, Cardiff's Millennium Stadium, though it would be over twenty years old by the time Euro 2020 started, would need minimal restructuring work and boasts a capacity of over 74,000, easily exceeding the 66,000 capacity of Kiev's National Stadium, which will host the final of Euro 2012 in June. Glasgow also has Celtic Park and Ibrox, both capable of holding over 50,000, while the GAA could be persuaded to host some matches at Croke Park, in light of the bumper pay days they enjoyed while the Irish rugby and soccer teams played home internationals at the Dublin 3 venue while Lansdowne Road was being rebuilt.

In economic terms, hosting a month-long international football tournament would certainly gets dollar symbols rolling in eyeballs. Dublin City Council estimated that the Europa League final generated something in  the region of €25-30 million for the city; how much could be generated from the hosting of fifty-one matches over a few weeks is anyone's guess at this juncture, but it would certainly pique the interest of people working in the business and political spheres in Cardiff, Dublin and Edinburgh.

There are still a number of concerns to be worked out. Scottish officials are said to be worried about getting enough funding to properly fund both a bid and the tournament itself. While there are three fine grounds in Glasgow, and Edinburgh's Murrayfield would certainly feature on any bid documentation, the SFA would be looking to other cities to bolster its chances. Aberdeen's new stadium has received a green light, but will have a capacity well short of the minimum required for a European Championship match, though increasing the proposed stadium's number of seats would probably not be worthwhile, given the club's average attendance at home matches this season was under 10,000. On the other side of the Irish Sea, that early dismissal of the Euro 2008 bid remains something of an embarrassment, given that then-Taoiseach Bertie Ahern tried to convince UEFA that Ireland could host matches in a Croke Park which the GAA had recently refused to open to "foreign" games and his Abbottstown project which quickly sank when the Progressive Democrats took one look at the price tag for building a new 75,000 seat stadium, while a rapidly ageing Lansdowne Road was presumably going to be either left to rot or demolished to property development.

For the FAI, the use of Croke Park hinges on the support of the GAA, who might be a little concerned about the timing. Although the European Championships wouldn't disrupt the All-Ireland football or hurling championships, with Euro 2020 almost certainly finished by early July and the All-Ireland series not starting until the end of July, Dublin's football team does play Leinster Championship matches in June, making things more than a little awkward since Dublin are well able to fill out the stadium, international soccer tournament or not. Nonetheless, following GAA President Liam O'Neill's refusal to rule out the use of Croke Park in the event of a successful Celtic bid, the FAI can at least approach the possibility of using the ground. A secondary issue is, while Dublin could provide two locations, where else could the FAI find an all-seater stadium with at least 30,000 seats? Limerick's Thomond Park, recently improved and within easy reach of Shannon Airport, would be a great venue, but the ground's capacity is a major issue. 25,600 can fit in, but only 20,000 of this is seating, meaning major work would have to be carried out to bump capacity up to UEFA's minimum standard. Cork's Páirc Uí Chaoimh had been given the green light for much-needed redevelopment by Cork City Council, with Cork GAA looking to turn the ground into a 45,000 all-seater venue, but how much redevelopment would be enough to satisfy UEFA demands is more than what would justify the expense involved, while even the scale of refurbishment for GAA matches alone is being questioned.

For the Welsh, only minor refurbishment of the Millennium Stadium would be needed to ensure some plum ties that would draw huge crowds, while Cardiff City's new home ground, the Cardiff City Stadium has room for just shy of 27,000 spectators, with the ability to easily add a tier to bring the capacity above the magic 30,000 mark. High-flying Swansea City's Liberty Stadium, opened in 2005, can hold 20,500, meaning significant work would have to be carried out in order to host any matches.

The single biggest problem facing a potential Celtic bid is the number of candidate cities with more than one available stadium. Three of Scotland's major stadiums, the SFA's own Hampden Park, Celtic's Celtic Park, and Rangers' Ibrox are all located within Glasgow, a factor which counted against a joint Scottish-Irish bid for Euro 2008, given that the successful Austrian-Swiss bid boasted eight venues in eight different cities. The Western Mail was eager to point out that UEFA likes having venues spread out, rather than in close proximity to each other. The pile-up of large grounds isn't confined to Scotland's second city alone, with Ireland's Croke Park and Lansdowne Road both in Dublin, while the Millennium Stadium and Cardiff City Stadium are less than three kilometres from each other in a city of under 400,000. Such proximity of grounds in all three capitals is a situation bound to raise eyebrows at UEFA when they begin looking at issues like transport and accommodation for teams and fans of different countries attending different matches within a couple of days of each other.

Yes, there would be some major issued that the three football associations would have to look at before even thinking about launching a joint bid. It's also true that such a bid might not even get off the ground, with the FAI, SFA and FAW insisting that Tuesday's exercise was little more than a statement of interest in holding the tournament; Ireland, Scotland and Wales hosting Euro 2020 may prove to be little more than a dream. But for those of us who love their sport, the opportunity to see some of the finest teams on the continent come to our shores for a festival of football, what a dream it would be.