Euro 2020 and the Celtic cousins

After a (very) long break, I'll try and get the blog moving again, with a look into a news story that has really intrigued me over the last few days: the declaration of interest in hosting UEFA Euro 2020 by the Football Association of Ireland, the Scottish Football Association and the Football Association of Wales. The three associations were at pains to state that the declaration, passed on to UEFA in advance of a deadline on Tuesday, was a preliminary move rather than a concrete plan to launch a bid for the tournament. Turkey and Georgia also submitted declared an interest in hosting the championships in eight years time, though other nations are still able to submit bids, with more than eighteen months to go before European football's governing body picks a host (or hosts). There had been speculation that Scotland and Wales would try to run a bid on their own, but the expansion of the European Championships to twenty-four teams from 2016, with the number of suitable stadiums demanded by UEFA also increasing, the FAI were brought in to strengthen a possible bid.

Getting to see an outfit like this in your own back yard?

A potential stumbling block to the three associations had been the number of hosts involved in a Celtic nations bid. In UEFA's list of regulations for bidding for Euro 2016, two member associations presenting a joint bid is permitted, but the idea of three members proposing a joint bid is treated rather more tepidly:

"UEFA may consider, under exceptional circumstances, joint bids comprised of three (3) member associations if and only if the relevant group of member associations submits to UEFA together with its confirmation of interest a clear and convincing argument regarding the measures to be taken to ensure the smooth and successful organisation of UEFA EURO 2016 in such a manner."
This particular article is presumably to prevent a logistical nightmare regarding transport of teams, officials and (especially) fans moving from between several countries over the course of the tournament, rather than any official disdain for tournaments being held in more than two countries. The issue of having to deal with different tax systems, currencies, police forces and governments probably makes things more difficult for UEFA too, but they have clearly gotten used to the concept as (including the upcoming finals in Poland and the Ukraine) three of the last four competitions have been hosted in different countries with different currencies. What's more, possible stadiums in Ireland, Scotland and Wales are much closer geographically than the two most distant grounds in 2012: the City Stadium in Poznan and the Donbass Arena in Donetsk are 1,793km apart, or a full day's driving up the E40 motorway to you and me. Meanwhile, SFA chief executive Stewart Regan revealed this week that an undertaking by UEFA to properly consider bids with more than three parties was the reason the SFA, the FAW and the FAI were keen to submit a declaration in the first place.

After all, given that the Euro finals will expand to accommodate twenty-four teams from 2016, having three hosts doesn't make it any more difficult to qualify for an expanded tournament than it was to make it to a sixteen team tournament hosted by two nations. There were few complaints about a lack of qualifying spots available when Belgium and the Netherlands hosted in 2000, or when Austria and Switzerland were picked to host Euro 2008, or in the recent campaign to reach Poland and the Ukraine. Indeed, with fifty-three members in UEFA, the percentage of spots left for qualifiers remains the same with three hosts of a twenty-four tournament as it is when two nations hold a sixteen team competition: 87.5% (21 qualifying from 24 finalists, or 14 out of 16). A nation looking to qualify would still have a greater mathematical chance of qualifying for a twenty-four team competition hosted by three teams than they did qualifying for Euro 2012 (21 spots for 50 teams is a 42% chance, 14 spots between 51 is 27.45%. This increased likelihood of qualifying is precisely why UEFA wanted to expand the number of finalists to twenty-four).

Turkey had been strong favourites to win the rights to host the tournament, especially after narrowly losing to France in the race to host Euro 2016 two years ago, while also having failed to win hosting rights for Euro 2008 and Euro 2012. But the fallout of widespread corruption and match-fixing in Turkish soccer has caused major embarrassment to the Turkish FA, with the scandal leading to the 2010-11 league champions, Fenerbache, being withdrawn from this season's Champions League on the direct order of UEFA. The resulting whispers of serious concern among the top brass at Europe's football governing body has opened the door for an opposing bid. In addition, Istanbul is applying to host the summer Olympics in the same year, the fifth time the city has sought to host the event in twenty years. Since the host of the 2020 summer Olympics will be known by September next year, Turkey's bid to host Euro 2020 could be terminated before UEFA gets a say in the matter: despite some tacit support from UEFA President Michel Platini, the President of the International Olympic Committee, Jacques Rogge, stated that no country was allowed to host the Olympics and another major international tournament in the same year. In short, Turkey could have Euro 2020, or Istanbul could have the 32nd summer Games, but they couldn't have both.

The other country to have declared an interest in hosting Euro 2020, Georgia, is likely to lag well behind should it decide to submit a formal bid. The Georgian FA had hoped to enter a joint bid with its neighbour Azerbaijan, but the latter decided not to proceed, as it's capital city, Baku, is also looking to host the 2020 summer Olympics. The main difficulty for the former Soviet republic is, with a population slightly larger than the Republic of Ireland, it could severely struggle to provide the minimum of nine all-seater stadiums expected by UEFA, of which two must be able to hold at least 50,000 spectators, another three capable of holding 40,000, and at least four more able to accommodate 30,000. This is before thinking of the infrastructure needed to provide adequate hotel space for the hundreds of thousands of potential fans travelling to the tournament, on top of the twenty-four teams and their delegations. A second issue is continued tension between the government of Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Following a full-scale war between the two states in 2008, Georgia considers the Russian military presence in the two regions as "an illegal military occupation", a sentiment that would leave people at UEFA headquarters nervous at the thought of giving their prize pony over to a state with a perpetually strained relationship with a major political and (growing) footballing power.

Of the larger European nations, France are already hosting Euro 2016 and Russia will run the 2018 FIFA World Cup, so neither would be allowed to bid for Euro 2020. The English, German and Spanish FAs all ruled themselves out of the running, while Italy continues to struggle both financially and in footballing terms, with their bid for Euro 2016 failing to win a single vote and their stadiums, fine for the World Cup in 1990, gradually requiring more and more renovation.

So, what of a Celtic collaboration? The existing ban on the sale of alcohol in Scottish grounds would not be a problem, given that UEFA expressly forbids it at its events, for security reasons.  The quality and quantity of venues in Ireland, Scotland and Wales is cause for good cheer: Lansdowne Road impressed the governing body after the successful hosting of last year's Europa League final between Porto and Braga and is barely two years old, while Glasgow's Hampden Park hosted the 2002 Champions League final and the decider of the 2006-07 UEFA Cup. For its part, Cardiff's Millennium Stadium, though it would be over twenty years old by the time Euro 2020 started, would need minimal restructuring work and boasts a capacity of over 74,000, easily exceeding the 66,000 capacity of Kiev's National Stadium, which will host the final of Euro 2012 in June. Glasgow also has Celtic Park and Ibrox, both capable of holding over 50,000, while the GAA could be persuaded to host some matches at Croke Park, in light of the bumper pay days they enjoyed while the Irish rugby and soccer teams played home internationals at the Dublin 3 venue while Lansdowne Road was being rebuilt.

In economic terms, hosting a month-long international football tournament would certainly gets dollar symbols rolling in eyeballs. Dublin City Council estimated that the Europa League final generated something in  the region of €25-30 million for the city; how much could be generated from the hosting of fifty-one matches over a few weeks is anyone's guess at this juncture, but it would certainly pique the interest of people working in the business and political spheres in Cardiff, Dublin and Edinburgh.

There are still a number of concerns to be worked out. Scottish officials are said to be worried about getting enough funding to properly fund both a bid and the tournament itself. While there are three fine grounds in Glasgow, and Edinburgh's Murrayfield would certainly feature on any bid documentation, the SFA would be looking to other cities to bolster its chances. Aberdeen's new stadium has received a green light, but will have a capacity well short of the minimum required for a European Championship match, though increasing the proposed stadium's number of seats would probably not be worthwhile, given the club's average attendance at home matches this season was under 10,000. On the other side of the Irish Sea, that early dismissal of the Euro 2008 bid remains something of an embarrassment, given that then-Taoiseach Bertie Ahern tried to convince UEFA that Ireland could host matches in a Croke Park which the GAA had recently refused to open to "foreign" games and his Abbottstown project which quickly sank when the Progressive Democrats took one look at the price tag for building a new 75,000 seat stadium, while a rapidly ageing Lansdowne Road was presumably going to be either left to rot or demolished to property development.

For the FAI, the use of Croke Park hinges on the support of the GAA, who might be a little concerned about the timing. Although the European Championships wouldn't disrupt the All-Ireland football or hurling championships, with Euro 2020 almost certainly finished by early July and the All-Ireland series not starting until the end of July, Dublin's football team does play Leinster Championship matches in June, making things more than a little awkward since Dublin are well able to fill out the stadium, international soccer tournament or not. Nonetheless, following GAA President Liam O'Neill's refusal to rule out the use of Croke Park in the event of a successful Celtic bid, the FAI can at least approach the possibility of using the ground. A secondary issue is, while Dublin could provide two locations, where else could the FAI find an all-seater stadium with at least 30,000 seats? Limerick's Thomond Park, recently improved and within easy reach of Shannon Airport, would be a great venue, but the ground's capacity is a major issue. 25,600 can fit in, but only 20,000 of this is seating, meaning major work would have to be carried out to bump capacity up to UEFA's minimum standard. Cork's Páirc Uí Chaoimh had been given the green light for much-needed redevelopment by Cork City Council, with Cork GAA looking to turn the ground into a 45,000 all-seater venue, but how much redevelopment would be enough to satisfy UEFA demands is more than what would justify the expense involved, while even the scale of refurbishment for GAA matches alone is being questioned.

For the Welsh, only minor refurbishment of the Millennium Stadium would be needed to ensure some plum ties that would draw huge crowds, while Cardiff City's new home ground, the Cardiff City Stadium has room for just shy of 27,000 spectators, with the ability to easily add a tier to bring the capacity above the magic 30,000 mark. High-flying Swansea City's Liberty Stadium, opened in 2005, can hold 20,500, meaning significant work would have to be carried out in order to host any matches.

The single biggest problem facing a potential Celtic bid is the number of candidate cities with more than one available stadium. Three of Scotland's major stadiums, the SFA's own Hampden Park, Celtic's Celtic Park, and Rangers' Ibrox are all located within Glasgow, a factor which counted against a joint Scottish-Irish bid for Euro 2008, given that the successful Austrian-Swiss bid boasted eight venues in eight different cities. The Western Mail was eager to point out that UEFA likes having venues spread out, rather than in close proximity to each other. The pile-up of large grounds isn't confined to Scotland's second city alone, with Ireland's Croke Park and Lansdowne Road both in Dublin, while the Millennium Stadium and Cardiff City Stadium are less than three kilometres from each other in a city of under 400,000. Such proximity of grounds in all three capitals is a situation bound to raise eyebrows at UEFA when they begin looking at issues like transport and accommodation for teams and fans of different countries attending different matches within a couple of days of each other.

Yes, there would be some major issued that the three football associations would have to look at before even thinking about launching a joint bid. It's also true that such a bid might not even get off the ground, with the FAI, SFA and FAW insisting that Tuesday's exercise was little more than a statement of interest in holding the tournament; Ireland, Scotland and Wales hosting Euro 2020 may prove to be little more than a dream. But for those of us who love their sport, the opportunity to see some of the finest teams on the continent come to our shores for a festival of football, what a dream it would be.