The Central Statistics Office released the preliminary results of the census, which was taken on April 10 last and, as always, it makes for some interesting reading. The total population increased some 8.1% nationally, from 4,239,848 in 2006 to the 4,581,269 recorded on census night. Every county and city increased their numbers with the exceptions of Cork and Limerick cities.
An interesting quandary raised by the census, at least one which is directly applicable to politics, in the distribution of TDs and the shape of Dáil constituencies in the future. One notable constituency which will have to be split is Laois-Offaly. This constituency has existed since 1921, and has returned five TDs at every election since 1923, a remarkable level of consistency and solidity in light of nine decades which saw a national haemorrhaging of population for much of the period, followed by a large increase in recent years. Indeed, the main reason why this constituency will be split is that Co. Laois experienced a boom in population in the last five years, with an astonishing 20% rise, the best percentage performance in the country. Overall, the constituency now has more than the legally-allowed 30,000 persons per TD, meaning the long-lasting political marriage of Laois-Offaly will soon undergo a velvet divorce.
Kildare South has also breached the prescribed 30,000 maximum, but won't have to be split, since it only has three TDs at present. Of course, it will have to be given an extra representative, so it will be interesting to see where that comes from. In addition, there are a further five constituencies where the average TDs represents between 29,000 and 30,000 people, meaning that these will have to be looked at sooner rather than later too.
What makes this necessary addition of TDs to constituencies in the Midlands and Dublin commuter belt more difficult is the desire to actually reduce the number of people sitting in the Dáil. The western seaboard will lose a number of TDs, as many areas have deputies acting on behalf of fewer than 27,000 people. The two Kerry constituencies may well be joined together, at the expense of one TD. One of Cavan-Monaghan's five seats might be targeted, as might one of the five in Mayo, a potential problem for one of Taoiseach Enda Kenny's three party colleagues come the next election.
Every political party promised political reform in the weeks leading up to the general election, with one pledge from Fine Gael seeking to reduce the number of representatives sitting in the lower house by around twenty. Coinciding with the interim census returns, the Fine Gael-Labour government established a new Constituency Commission last Thursday to see where deputy numbers could be scaled back. The government stated an expectation that somewhere between six and thirteen seats would be abolished, far fewer than the twenty or more envisioned before the election. Phil Hogan, the Minister for the Environment and Local Government, and therefore the person responsible for legislation covering political reform, has realised that the increased population makes it more difficult to cut a large number of TDs without breaching the constitution. The constitution demands each constituency to have between three and five deputies, with each deputy representing at least 20,000 people, but no more than 30,000.
This raises a question over the government's true desire to implement real political reform. Mr. Hogan denied that the government was performing a U-turn on the issue, but the potential reduction of only six TDs would surely fail to impress a general public which had hoped for more wholehearted attempts to slimline Irish politics, certainly in light of pre-election promises on what had being a recurring issue on the campaign trail. Reducing the number of TDs will mean someone, or somewhere, will lose out at the next election, but will the reduced representation be dismissed as minuscule by a public looking to see the Oireachtas cut costs in its own house as well as elsewhere in the public sector?
